Research · Rates & Bonds

Interest Rates & Bond Research

Rate dynamics drive every other asset class. Our rates and bonds research tracks the full fixed-income landscape — from SOFR futures to global sovereign curves.

Scope

The macro anchor of every cycle.

Interest rate dynamics drive everything — equities, crypto, real estate, and FX. Our rates and bonds research tracks the full fixed income landscape including SOFR futures, Fed Funds futures, Euribor, SONIA, and a comprehensive set of Treasury and global bond contracts.

Focus Areas

Yield curve analysis — 2s/10s, 3m/10s, term-premium decomposition, inversion signals.
Fed policy cycle positioning — dot plot evolution, reaction functions, market-implied paths.
Short & long duration — when to sit in the belly, when to extend or shorten.
Interest rate futures — CME SOFR, Fed Funds, Euribor, SONIA, BoC STIR.
Bond futures — US 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, 30Y Treasuries plus Bunds, Gilts, JGBs.
Credit spreads — IG vs HY as cycle confirmation, OAS regime detection.

Why It Matters

Rates are the cycle’s metronome.

Equity Duration

Rate regime defines which equity factors work. Growth vs value rotation is a rate story before it's anything else.

Crypto Beta

Real yields compress → risk assets expand. The correlation is imperfect but directional and durable across cycles.

Dollar Channel

Rate differentials drive DXY. DXY drives EM equity, commodities, and non-USD crypto flows.

Credit Cycle

Spreads widen before equities break. We watch IG and HY OAS as leading indicators of regime change.